The Basics Of The Kentucky Derby for Horse Racing Beginners
The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May. This is a race that many people follow and try to handicap even if theyre not typically horse racing enthusiasts. Understanding race horses is hard work, and a discipline unto itself.
While understanding and predicting horse races is a very complex discipline, here are some basics that can help the amateur understand the Kentucky Derby. Back during the seventies, it was a race dominated by the favorite including three great Triple Crown winners"Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed"and a great horse that came close, Spectacular Bid. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who've won the race on one hand with fingers left over. If I was a serious horseplayer, I might not advise you to do this but since I'm just worried about predicting the outcome of this one race Im going to suggest that you forget about the favorite altogether. Not only will you not be flying in the face of recent history, but also it allows you to concentrate on the horses offering greater value.
There are a variety of theories behind the poor performance of favorites in the Kentucky Derby of late. One is that the hype surrounding the race has attracted so many mainstream fans who are prone to back the horse with the most media hype. Unfortunately, the most hyped horse is seldom the best horse.
Don't forget to pay attention to the starting position of the horses, known as 'post position' in racing slang. The historical data suggests that a Derby winner is most likely to come from positions 1 through 5, while the outer positions (11 through 20) have produced relatively few winners. This is something of an over simplification, but for the purpose of understanding a single race it won't hurt to just rule out all horses starting in a bad position.
Another factor worthy of consideration is the horses lineage and breeding. Start at the beginning"where the horse was born. Most, but not all, serious racehorses are born in Kentucky. If you see a horse in the race that wasnt, forget them. This is not any sort of home field advantage but a result of the concentration of the Thoroughbred horse industry in the state. Over 80% of Kentucky Derby winners have been born in Kentucky. Next, consider the horses gender, or more specifically dont consider any entry with a gender other than male. Only eleven horses other than intact males have ever won the race (eight geldings and three fillies). A gelding did win as recently as 2003, when Funny Cide took the roses but again for the newcomer this is an easy way to cut down the horses under consideration. This isnt a gender bias or anything, but for our purposes we can forget about non-male horses.
Don't forget to consider dosage index numbers. These are a complex mathematical formula that measures a horse's breeding lineage plus his past performance. You want to look for horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or less--over half of Derby winners have met this criteria since dosage numbers came into common usage in the mid 1980's.
If you want to learn about horse racing in more depth, there are countless books available to introduce you to the subject. For a recreational fan who just wants to have a better understanding of the Kentucky Derby, these rules can help. - 23815
While understanding and predicting horse races is a very complex discipline, here are some basics that can help the amateur understand the Kentucky Derby. Back during the seventies, it was a race dominated by the favorite including three great Triple Crown winners"Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed"and a great horse that came close, Spectacular Bid. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who've won the race on one hand with fingers left over. If I was a serious horseplayer, I might not advise you to do this but since I'm just worried about predicting the outcome of this one race Im going to suggest that you forget about the favorite altogether. Not only will you not be flying in the face of recent history, but also it allows you to concentrate on the horses offering greater value.
There are a variety of theories behind the poor performance of favorites in the Kentucky Derby of late. One is that the hype surrounding the race has attracted so many mainstream fans who are prone to back the horse with the most media hype. Unfortunately, the most hyped horse is seldom the best horse.
Don't forget to pay attention to the starting position of the horses, known as 'post position' in racing slang. The historical data suggests that a Derby winner is most likely to come from positions 1 through 5, while the outer positions (11 through 20) have produced relatively few winners. This is something of an over simplification, but for the purpose of understanding a single race it won't hurt to just rule out all horses starting in a bad position.
Another factor worthy of consideration is the horses lineage and breeding. Start at the beginning"where the horse was born. Most, but not all, serious racehorses are born in Kentucky. If you see a horse in the race that wasnt, forget them. This is not any sort of home field advantage but a result of the concentration of the Thoroughbred horse industry in the state. Over 80% of Kentucky Derby winners have been born in Kentucky. Next, consider the horses gender, or more specifically dont consider any entry with a gender other than male. Only eleven horses other than intact males have ever won the race (eight geldings and three fillies). A gelding did win as recently as 2003, when Funny Cide took the roses but again for the newcomer this is an easy way to cut down the horses under consideration. This isnt a gender bias or anything, but for our purposes we can forget about non-male horses.
Don't forget to consider dosage index numbers. These are a complex mathematical formula that measures a horse's breeding lineage plus his past performance. You want to look for horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or less--over half of Derby winners have met this criteria since dosage numbers came into common usage in the mid 1980's.
If you want to learn about horse racing in more depth, there are countless books available to introduce you to the subject. For a recreational fan who just wants to have a better understanding of the Kentucky Derby, these rules can help. - 23815
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a freelance writer specializing in casino gambling, entertainment and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Jim McMahon.
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